Back in 2018, a mere a short phrase to electrify the party's annual gathering and to show Labour was becoming disillusioned with Jeremy Corbyn. While not exactly soaring oratory, the phrase were greeted with wild cheering as delegates rose in spontaneous acclamation.
When the noise subsided, the then-Brexit spokesman, remained at the lectern, blinking in surprise. He wasn't really accustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "We are not excluding staying in the EU". But context is everything.
During that deeply polarized period of 2018, departing from his agreed text in this way was inevitably viewed as laying down the gauntlet to the party leader, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in working-class seats above the Europhile sentiments within Labour. With that single address, this grey-suited opposition Brexit spokesman was transformed – albeit temporarily – into a risk-taker who would stand up for the party's base against the leadership he later succeeded.
The Evolution of Stance and Closed Issues
In the years since, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. An early move after taking over in 2020 was to declare the EU question had been settled by the previous year’s national vote. And, at the last one, he consistently stressed manifesto “red line” promises that forbade re-entry into the European Union or its core structures.
Like his predecessor, his strategy has been to pursue pro-Leave voters in target constituencies, even if polling evidence indicates many of them have died or changed their minds.
Pressure Building on the EU
Yet, the tables have turned and Starmer is now to face the pressures of being a party leader. And, if Europe is no longer the boiling pot of British politics, a lid that has been kept firmly shut since Brexit is starting to loosen again.
The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up the rhetoric about the devastation that leaving the EU has inflicted on Britain's economic standing. It’s a useful stick with which to beat Nigel Farage, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and remains his sole political accomplishment.
And yet, the extent of the economic harm, which by some estimates has resulted in an economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, towers over the micro-mitigation thus far implemented by the government. Starmer’s so-called relationship reset negotiated with the EU last summer provides gains measured in fractions of a percent.
Cabinet Divergence and Ambitious Proposals
The chancellor is among those trying to overcome long-standing interior ministry opposition to a broader scheme designed to boost growth program for young people allowing young people can travel between the UK and the EU to study or work.
David Lammy muses openly regarding the clear advantages of joining a customs union with the EU, as several Labour backbenchers, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, recently voted for an opposition proposal on joining one.
Although the Europe minister, the minister in charge of EU policy, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, maintains the red lines remain unchanged, there are ways these could be bypassed. One idea would be to announce the start of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the following election platform, to be enacted only after securing a fresh mandate.
The Prime Minister's Fundamental Scepticism
However, Starmer has most recently damping it all down on the idea cautioning that rejoining a European customs area could undermine the trade pacts with America, which he regards as key accomplishments of his premiership.
Reportedly that the PM’s scepticism go still deeper, and is rooted in several key concerns.
- Firstly, he thinks any customs union agreement is now much harder because his ministers actively diverging from European rules in numerous sectors, including the environment.
- Secondly, the prohibitive cost demanded from Britain to join the EU’s new defence fund and the subsequent collapse in talks has convinced British officials that European nations are less interested in offering favorable terms with Britain and are more focused on demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
- Lastly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is viewed by some influential figures in Number 10 as a reason for Britain to maintain distance from Europe.
An Alarming Strategy and Strategic Calculations
This strange and concerning document asserts Europe is threatened by “civilizational erasure” due to Muslim migration. It includes only one reference of the UK, found on a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in our politics to foster the rise of nationalist movements.
But, far from concluding that this makes the US an unreliable partner, ministers reportedly fear that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by endangering fragile US military support for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.
Leadership Speculation and The Ghost from the Past
This situation brings us back to 2018. Starmer has always said that address was not a pitch for the leadership but simply an effort to keep open the possibility of remain being on the ballot paper. In fact, back then, he still supported a tailored trade agreement similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.
Observers within Downing Street note that Wes Streeting, widely considered would stand in any leadership election, is part of a group of cabinet ministers signaling they want to go further on Europe.
Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another likely contender in a future race for the top job, maintain she refuses to comment on her stance regarding a customs pact because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.
The Obvious Risk and A Wise Reminder
The danger is obvious. If Starmer rules out significant moves towards EU alignment, he cedes ground to occupy the space where the overwhelming majority of the party's supporters reside.
It would be wise for Starmer to remember the impact that a short phrase had for him in 2018. Potential pathways for a major proposal on EU relations which the PM should not “rule out”; he should explore them personally, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.
